Political Science 111
American Politics
Dr. Sellers
November 5, 2007

Paper #2

In this second paper assignment, you need to evaluate and explain the impact of your campaign ad, using the results of the Davidson Survey.  Your paper needs to have four parts:

1. Overall argument.  Why do you expect your ad to affect respondents’ evaluations of the candidate(s)?  Why are some respondents more responsive to the ad than others?  Your argument in this section needs to draw from the concepts and theories of campaign effects that we have covered in readings and class discussion; make sure to include the appropriate citations.  To explain variations in evaluations of the candidates, your argument needs to include both a main explanatory factor and a second one (i.e., two independent variables).
2. Evidence.  Describe in general terms the evidence that you will use to support your argument.  This section will largely consist of describing the survey and its questions.
3. Analysis.  Analyze the survey results, hopefully (but not necessarily) providing support for your argument.  Your analysis needs to include three sections.
1. Describe the basic measure(s) of candidate evaluations in the survey.  In other words, describe the basic patterns in your dependent variable(s).
2. Examine how well the main part of your argument explains variation in the candidate evaluations.  Specifically, what is the impact of your main explanatory variable (i.e., your main independent variable)?  You can use crosstabs or regression to illustrate this impact.
3. In a single regression model, analyze the impact of both your main explanatory variable and the secondary one.
4. Implications.  Discuss the implications of your argument and findings, for the Clinton and Obama campaigns or campaigns more generally.

Ideally, at least one of your independent variables will exert a significant influence on candidate evaluations.  But, please note that not all independent variables may prove significant.  The explanatory factors from your overall argument may not yield significant results; that outcome is fine as long as you follow the correct process in analyzing their impact (or lack thereof).

I encourage you to include the numerical results of your analysis in tables on a separate page from your essay.  We will discuss in class the proper format for these tables.

You should type your answers, using 1-inch margins and a font no smaller than 10 point.  The first page of your paper should only contain identifying information (your name, etc.).  The text of your answers should begin on the second page (with no identifying information on this or later pages).  The paper can be either single- or double-spaced.  All the text of your answer should appear on the second page; when grading, I will not read any material past the second page (except tables presenting your numerical results, notes, or citation information in a bibliography).  The paper should contain appropriate in-text citations for any sources used.  The detailed information for each citation should then appear in a bibliography on a separate third page.  The problem set is due at the start of class on Monday, November 30.  Papers turned in after 10 minutes after the scheduled start of class will be considered late.  Finally, the Honor Code binds all answers; make sure that you pledge your work.