Methods and Statistics in Political Science
Political Science 221
Chambers B027
Monday, Wednesday, Friday
9:30 – 10:20 p.m. (Section A, CRN 13783)
10:30 – 11:20 p.m. (Section B, CRN 14398)
Fall 2005

Dr. Patrick Sellers Chambers 2039 Office Phone: 704-894-2078 Office Hours: MWF 11:30-12:30 (CHA3130), TTh 9:30-10:30 (my office), and by appt. Email: pasellers@davidson.edu

Assignments Blackboard

 Course Objectives

The world of politics offers a nearly infinite array of interesting and important problems.  Why did George Bush win the 2004 presidential election?  Is Europe's adoption of a common currency a merely superficial change or an important development fundamentally affecting the region's political and economic institutions?  Why has religious fundamentalism thrived in Islamic countries?  For these and many other questions, potential answers may be difficult to sort out.  It is even harder to demonstrate conclusively that one of those answers is more "correct" than another.  This course will help you think more carefully and systematically about political questions, their potential answers, and the types of evidence needed to evaluate those answers.

To encourage such careful, systematic thinking, the course focuses on the analytical framework of statistics.  During the first part of the semester, we explore the logic of statistics without using numbers.  We examine how that logic can improve many types of non-quantitative analysis (i.e., research without "number crunching"), from historical analysis to single or comparative case studies.  The statistical principles can help make this type of research more logical and systematic.  However, the application of statistical principles to non-quantitative work is not universal and can be controversial; we will also discuss some of these controversies.  

During the second part of the semester, we examine the same statistical principles in their more common context: quantitative analysis with many observations.  With the growing availability of surveys and other large data sets, politicians and political scientists are increasingly turning to this type of analysis.  We begin with a discussion of averages and then move to basic concepts of probability and hypothesis testing.  We conclude with several weeks on correlation and regression, two of the most common types of statistical analysis.  These topics often create fear in the minds of political science majors, particularly those who chose the major in order to avoid all contact with numbers!  This course can alleviate such "stats anxiety."  Students are NOT required to have an extensive background in math or calculus.  Instead, they should understand basic math functions (addition, subtraction, multiplication, and division) and be willing to learn and apply additional math concepts.

Mastery of the course concepts can benefit students in many ways.  Here at Davidson, an understanding of statistical principles can help in other courses by making it easier to understand political science research presented in those courses.  You can impress friends and professors by posing important questions about that research: Why were the particular cases chosen for analysis?  Were these the best cases?  Does the evidence presented persuasively support the author's argument?  The concepts from this course can also make it easier for students to do their own research for seminar papers or honors theses.  Finally, the course can prove helpful after graduation.  In addition to developing their analytical and statistical abilities, students must improve their skills of written and verbal expression and learn a statistical computer program (Stata).  After graduation, these skills can make a student more attractive to potential employers.

Course Requirements

Each student’s grade for the course will be based on several components.  

• Graded problem sets.  Students will complete 5 problem sets.  Each individual problem set is worth 5% of the overall course grade.  The average of the problem set grades is worth 25% of the overall course grade.  Some assignments will require students to use the Stata statistical computer program.
• Presentations.  Each student will make one in-class presentation during the semester, lasting five minutes.  Students will sign up for different dates during the semester.  The grade on the presentation is worth 5% of the overall grade.
• Evaluation of presentations.  Each student will evaluate ten of the presentations.  I will assess the thoroughness of the evaluations; cursory or partial evaluations will receive lower grades.  Each individual evaluation is worth .5% of the overall course grade.  The average of the evaluation grades is worth 5% of the overall course grade. 
• Midterm exam.  This exam is in class on October 5 and is worth 25% of the overall course grade.
• Final exam.  This exam is self-scheduled during the exam period and is worth 35% of the overall course grade.
• Daily problems.  Students will receive a series of 20 daily problems over the course of the semester. Each individual problem counts .4% of the overall course grade. The average of the daily problem grades is worth 5% of the overall course grade. The daily problems help students apply and understand concepts from a particular day's class immediately after that class. I strongly encourage students to complete all these problems. Students can certainly work out the answers to these problems in groups, although each individual student must submit an individual answer. 

Students will receive more details about each assignment in class.  All assignments are due at the start of class on the assigned date (unless noted otherwise).  Assignments turned in more than 10 minutes after the start of a class period will be considered late.  For each 24-hour period that an assignment is late, the grade on that assignment receives a penalty of 10 points.  I will consider exceptions to the late penalty for medical and other emergencies; computer problems are not acceptable excuses for late work.  

The Honor Code binds all work in the course.  In accordance with the Honor Code, all paper assignments must provide appropriate citations for any sources or information included in the paper; failure to provide these citations is a violation of the Honor Code.  If you have questions about the appropriate format for citations, make sure that you ask me before turning in the paper.  You can also visit the Campus Writing Center for additional assistance with citations.  

Students must complete the two exams and make and evaluate the presentations individually.  Students may work together to study for exams, as well as to complete problem sets and daily problems. But, each student must submit his or her individual answers for the problem sets and the daily problems.  I strongly encourage group effort; working together makes it easier to understand the problem and get the right answer!  In addition, I encourage each student to practice his or her presentation in front of classmates before giving it in class.  This practice gives you feedback on the presentation before you give the version in class that receives a grade.

The numerical grade for any assignment turned in may range from outstanding (in the 90-to-100 range) to failing (55).  Note that the failure to complete and turn in any assignment (problem set, presentation, evaluation of presentation, or exam) will result in a numerical grade of 0 for that assignment.  When calculating final course grades, I will calculate the overall numerical averages and use the following table to convert them to letter grades:

Throughout the semester, students will use the Blackboard web site for three purposes: submitting answers to daily problems, submitting evaluations of class presentations, and checking grades on those answers and evaluations.

• Logging on to the Blackboard site
  • Click on the Blackboard link at the top of this page.  Type in your username and password that you use for any computer on campus.  When the new screen appears, click on the link for "Methods/Statistics Pol Sci" (under "My Courses").  You will then see your own course page for POL221.
• Submitting answers to daily problems
  • For a trial run in using Blackboard, click on the button for "Daily Problems" on your Blackboard page. You will then see a link labeled "Daily Problem #00."  Click on the link.  Blackboard will ask if you want to take the assessment now.  Click on "OK." The new screen that appears provides instructions for completing the problem set. In the blank field below the instructions, type in your evaluation. When you have finished, click the "Submit" button and all the subsequent "OK" buttons, and Blackboard will record your answer. MAKE SURE THAT YOU CLICK ON ALL THE RELEVANT "OK" BUTTONS BEFORE EXITING BLACKBOARD.  If you do not, Blackboard may not save your answer, and you will not receive credit for that answer!
  • The schedule of daily problems is noted in the course outline below.  Each daily problem will appear in Blackboard at the end of class on the day when we discuss the topic of the problem.  That daily problem will remain available (i.e., students will be able to submit answers for credit) until the beginning of the next class, when the answer to the problem is due (the due dates are listed in the course outline).  After that time, students will no longer be able to submit answers to the question.  For example, Daily Problem #2 will become available at the end of class on August 26.  The link for submitting answers to this daily problem It will remain available until the start of class on August 29 (the date when the syllabus states "Daily Prob. #2 completed").  After this point, students can no longer answer Daily Problem #2.  Once an answer to a daily problem appears on Blackboard, it will remain available there until the end of the semester.
• Submitting evaluations of class presentations
  • As mentioned above, each student is expected to evaluate ten of the class presentations; I will distribute a schedule of which presentations that each student is to evaluate.  To submit an evaluation, you need to find (on your Blackboard page for POL221) the "Presentations" button.  Click on this button, and a new screen then appears. After a class with a student presentation, this "Presentations" screen will contain a link for that presentation. Click on this link to submit your evaluation of the presentation (note that the presentations and corresponding links are numbered from 1 to 20). When Blackboard asks if you want to take the assessment now, click on "OK".  The new screen that appears provides instructions for evaluating the presentation.  In the blank field below the instructions, type in your evaluation.  When you have finished, click the "Submit" button and all the subsequent "OK" buttons, and Blackboard will record your evaluation. MAKE SURE THAT YOU CLICK ON ALL THE RELEVANT "OK" BUTTONS BEFORE EXITING BLACKBOARD.  If you do not, Blackboard may not save your answer, and you will not receive credit for that answer!
  • You will be able to submit an evaluation of a presentation from the end of the class in which the presentation is given, until the start of the next class. The appropriate link and form in Blackboard will be available for that period -- AND NOT LATER. If you do not submit one of your assigned evaluations, you will receive a grade of 0 for that evaluation. I will try to send out email reminders to do the evaluation after each class with a presentation.  But, the responsibility for completing each evaluation is ultimately yours.
• Checking grades assigned to presentation evaluations and daily problem answers
  • On your POL221 Blackboard page, click on the button for "Grades", and then on the link for "My Grades".  The new screen contains a line for each individual evaluation or daily problem answer that you submitted. As soon as I enter your grade for an assignment into Blackboard, you can see that grade on this page.  You will be able to see only your own grades and no one else's; likewise, no one else will be able to see your grades.  

Assigned Readings

Three required texts are available for purchase in the bookstore: Designing Social Inquiry, by King, Keohane, and Verba; The Statistical Imagination, by Ritchey; and Applied Regression: An Introduction, by Lewis-Beck. We will also read several individual articles, denoted with an “*” in the course outline below.  These articles are available on electronic reserve on the library's web site.  We may also add additional articles as the semester progresses; these will also be on electronic reserve.