What Influences the News Coverage that Candidates Receive on
Issues?
A look at National Security Coverage in the 2004 Presidential Election
Appendix
Introduction | Background | Expectations | Data | Methods | Results | Conclusions | Appendix
TABLE 1A. Regression
Model of Candidate’s Coverage of National Security in NYT and WP
(Standard Error)
|
|
Gephardt |
Lieberman |
|
Dean |
Edwards |
Kerry |
|
|||
|
Press
Releases |
-.10 (.11) |
.01 (.11) |
-.46 (.28) |
.20 (.75) |
-.28 (.22) |
-.30 (.17) |
|
|||
|
FDCH
Documents |
-.06 (.11) |
.11 (.08) |
.69*** (.15) |
.05 (.35) |
-.07 (.44) |
-.07 (.19) |
|
|||
|
Day
in the Data Set |
.00 (.00) |
.00* (.00) |
.00 (.00) |
.00* (.00) |
.00 (.00) |
.01*** (.00) |
|
|||
|
Number
of candidates in race |
# |
.09 (18) |
-.02 (.14) |
.18 (.11) |
-.05 (.04) |
-.11 (.07) |
|
|||
Days
of the Week
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||
|
Tuesday |
.05 (.07) |
.11 (.15) |
.04 (.20) |
.29 (.22) |
.21 (.13) |
.59** (.22) |
|
|||
|
Wednesday |
-.13 (.07) |
-.06 (.15) |
-.20 (.19) |
.04 (.22) |
-.04 (.12) |
-.05 (.22) |
|
|||
|
Thursday |
-.01 (.07) |
-.03 (.15) |
-.11 (.19) |
.17 (.21) |
.03 (.12) |
.21 (.22) |
|
|||
|
Friday |
-.13 (.07) |
.02 (.15) |
.13 (.21) |
.32 (.22) |
.06 (.12) |
.24 (.22) |
|
|||
|
Saturday |
-.12 (.07) |
-.08 (.15) |
.02 (.20) |
-.14 (.22) |
-.05 (.12) |
-.13 (.22) |
|
|||
|
Sunday |
-.11 (.07) |
.04 (.15) |
-.19 (.19) |
.07 (.21) |
-.04 (.12) |
.01 (.21) |
|
|||
State
of the
|
|
|||||||||
|
Day of |
-.18 (.23) |
.54 (.50) |
.45 (.66) |
.18 (.75) |
-.40 (.44) |
-.11 (.86) |
|
|||
|
Day after |
-.01 (.23) |
-.29 (.50) |
-.32 (.66) |
1.42 (.75) |
2.85*** (.44) |
3.38*** (.79) |
|
|||
|
2 days after |
# |
.79 (.51) |
2.98*** (.71) |
1.42 (.74) |
2.67*** (.44) |
1.91* (.78) |
|
|||
Security
Alerts
|
|
|||||||||
|
Day the security alert went to “high” |
-.16 (.23) |
-.25 (.50) |
.93 (.73) |
-.55 (.75) |
1.00* (.45) |
.17 (.81) |
|
|||
|
Days alert was at “high” |
.04 (.06) |
-.03 (.14) |
.07 (.18) |
.15 (.21) |
-.13 (.12) |
-.33 (.21) |
|
|||
|
Press Releases from DHS |
.02 (.02) |
-.03 (.04) |
.05 (.05) |
.05 (.06) |
.06 (.03) |
.08 (.06) |
|
|||
|
R-squared |
.11 |
.11 |
.26 |
.19 |
.43 |
.43 |
|
|||
|
# no data because
candidate not in race |
||||||||||
TABLE 1B. Predicted
Levels of Candidate’s Coverage of National Security in NYT and WP
|
|
Gephardt |
Lieberman |
|
Dean |
Edwards |
Kerry |
|
Baseline (average) |
.009 |
.056 |
.489 |
.382 |
.211 |
.794 |
|
FDCH Documents |
||||||
|
0 |
|
|
.461 |
|
|
|
|
.36 |
|
|
.710 |
|
|
|
|
Day in the Data
Set |
||||||
|
40 |
|
-.007 |
|
.170 |
|
.264 |
|
146 |
|
.120 |
|
.594 |
|
1.324 |
Tuesday
|
||||||
|
0 |
|
|
|
|
|
.665 |
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
1.26 |
State of the
|
||||||
|
Day after |
||||||
|
0 |
|
|
|
|
.197 |
.777 |
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
3.047 |
4.157 |
|
2 days after |
||||||
|
0 |
|
|
.474 |
|
.198 |
.785 |
|
1 |
|
|
3.454 |
|
2.868 |
2.695 |
Day the security alert went
to “high”
|
||||||
|
0 |
|
|
|
|
.206 |
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
1.206 |
|
|
NOTE: All independent
variables were used in the predicted values calculation. This chart shows only the statistically
significant variables predicted values. |
||||||
TABLE 2A. Regression
Model of Candidate’s Coverage of National Security in NYT and WP
*Including IA Caucus instead of Day in the Data Set
(t-statistic)
|
|
Gephardt |
Lieberman |
|
Dean |
Edwards |
Kerry |
|
# Days before
IA |
-.98 |
-2.03* |
-1.34 |
-2.87** |
-1.89 |
-4.06*** |
|
# Days after IA |
-.05 |
-1.28 |
-1.35 |
-2.48* |
.71 |
1.76 |
|
Number of candidates
in race |
# |
-.99 |
-1.38 |
-2.09* |
.36 |
1.21 |
State of the
|
||||||
|
Day of |
-.71 |
1.17 |
.76 |
.32 |
-.91 |
-.23 |
|
Day after |
# |
-.40 |
-.32 |
2.13* |
6.39*** |
4.22*** |
|
2 days after |
# |
.75 |
3.22** |
.76 |
5.97*** |
2.83** |
|
R-squared |
.11 |
.12 |
.27 |
.22 |
.43 |
.44 |
|
*p<.05; **p<.01;
***p<.001 # no data because
candidate not in race All other independent
variables remained the same |
||||||
TABLE 2B. Regression
Model of Candidate’s Coverage of National Security in NYT and WP
*Including NH Primary instead of Day in the Data
Set
(t-statistic)
|
|
Gephardt |
Lieberman |
|
Dean |
Edwards |
Kerry |
|
# Days before
NH |
-.98 |
-2.07* |
-1.24 |
-2.54* |
-2.02* |
-4.32*** |
|
# Days after NH |
# |
-1.87 |
-1.37 |
-2.79** |
-.37 |
-.03 |
|
Number of candidates
in race |
# |
-.92 |
-1.31 |
-2.08* |
-.77 |
-.64 |
State of the
|
||||||
|
Day of |
-.81 |
1.10 |
.71 |
.29 |
-.89 |
-.10 |
|
Day after |
-.06 |
-.61 |
-.47 |
1.93 |
6.43*** |
4.29*** |
|
2 days after |
# |
.86 |
3.45** |
.81 |
5.61*** |
2.25* |
|
R-squared |
.11 |
.13 |
.27 |
.23 |
.43 |
.43 |
|
*p<.05; **p<.01;
***p<.001 # no data because
candidate not in race All other independent
variables remained the same |
||||||