Issues and Democratic Primaries 2004

What Influences the News Coverage that Candidates Receive on Issues?
A look at Education Coverage in the 2004 Presidential Election

Conclusions

To respond to the question I initially posed, can candidates affect their coverage by issuing press releases, I must say that the evidence is inconclusive. Since the variable expressing the number of press releases a candidate issued on a particular day was only significant for Howard Dean, it is unwise to draw larger conclusions from this limited result. However, some other factors help explain the larger question, the variation in candidate coverage on education. The principle variables that affect candidate coverage are the number of candidates in the race and the passage of time. It is important to note that these variables are almost all significant at the p<.01 level. This finding is intuitive, for as the primaries draw near and occur, candidates exit the race and stories that appear mention only the remaining candidates. These two inter-related factors combine to produce more stories mentioning the candidates who remain in the race. Other factors influencing candidate coverage are the days of the week and the State of the Union address. As I expected, Monday proved significant, since the media begin the week with new material. Thursday also proved significant, which I postulate is due to the Congressional workweek that runs from Tuesday to Thursday. Reporters covering Capitol Hill are frequently the same reporters who cover elections, since, for example, in this election, Edwards, Gephardt, Kerry and Lieberman were all members of Congress. The State of the Union variable proved significant for Dean and Kerry, the two frontrunners at the time. Since President Bush spoke about education in the State of the Union address, the press logically presented more stories around the day of the address.

Our project leaves room for further research. We studied only press releases. Another avenue candidates use to affect their coverage is advertisements, and a study that combined both these aspects would prove instructive. Future researchers could study when and where candidates released ads and how the coverage in those areas changed. Also, we did not address the way in which coverage affected the public’s perception of the candidates. Incorporating a public opinion aspect into this study would greatly increase its applicability and scope. Periodic public opinion polls during the time in which we collected data could be tracked and associated with the coverage and press releases. For instance, (a candidate certainly hopes that) increased coverage could produce more positive feelings in the public’s view. Our project could be improved with more qualitative analysis of the candidates’ history, including their voting record and bills proposed. This analysis could speak more clearly to issue ownership because a candidate’s background plays a significant role in whether or not he or she can own an issue.

Our principle contribution to the literature concerning elections is that we studied the way in which the coverage of individual issues varied across the time period for which we collected data. We made an interesting choice in that we studied the presidential primaries, whereas most literature studies only the general election (or Congressional contests). I found that the principle influences of candidate coverage on education were the passage of time and the number of candidates in the race.

By: Beth Daniel '04

© Davidson College, 2004, Department of Political Science, Davidson College, Davidson, NC 28035
Send comments, questions, and suggestions to Patrick Sellers
Created: 4/27/2004. Last updated: 5/2/2004.