Issues and Democratic Primaries 2004

What Influences the News Coverage that Candidates Receive on Issues?
A look at National Security Coverage in the 2004 Presidential Election

Expectations

How can candidates set the issue agenda in a campaign? My expectations are that there are a number of influences that might affect the amount of coverage that a candidate receives on homeland security. The influences that this study will focus on are: press releases issued by the candidate, press conferences and speeches given by the candidates, the day in the campaign process, the number of candidates in the race, the day of the week, Primaries/Caucuses (Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina), the State of the Union address, and various security alerts (days the terror level was at high and the press releases issued by the Department of Homeland Security).

Press releases
Ansolabehere proposed press management strategies that candidates could use to increase their coverage in the media. One of these strategies was that candidates make it easy for reporters because if a reporter has an easy time getting the story about the candidate, they are more likely to report on that candidate (Ansolabehere 1993). I propose that the day after a press release is given out, there will be more coverage on national security in the media for the candidate because the candidate made it easy for the reporter to get the story.

Press conferences and speeches (FDCH Documents)

Press conferences and speeches are another way for candidates to make it easy for reporters to get the story. I propose that the day after a candidate gives a speech or press conference on national security, there will be more coverage given to them in the print media.

The day in the campaign process (Day in the Data Set)

The data set begins in September 2003 when the Democratic candidates have established their campaigns and are trying to maximize their exposure to the voters before the Primaries begin. The data set ends on March 3, 2004 after many of the major Primaries have taken place and a frontrunner has been established.

The later on it is in the campaign process, the closer it is to the Democratic National Party Convention and the Presidential Election. Issues become important if they are of national concern (Dalager 1996). National Security is a salient issue for this election so it is going to receive more coverage. I propose that the closer the day is to March (the end of the data set), the more coverage there will be given to candidates on national security.

Number of Candidates in the race

When the data set begins in September 2003, all six candidates are still in the race. The end of the data set leaves only John Kerry left in the race. I propose that the fewer candidates there are, the more coverage the remaining candidates are going to receive on national security. As already pointed out, candidates gain momentum, which is when candidates that are doing well in the polls receive more favorable coverage, and as a result do even better in the polls (Shaw/Sparrow 1999). Candidates that are not doing well in the polls and primaries are going to drop out. Therefore, the candidates that are left will be faring better in the polls and the momentum they have will result in more news coverage.

The day of the week

Reporters follow news routines that make it easy report on the news. News routines include certain days of the week that are more apt to having hard political news stories than others. Hard political news stories are usually about Congress, the President, or other national political news. The media are only going to report on hard news stories when these politicians are active. Congress is often only in session on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. The President often spends long weekends at Camp David or in Texas. Since politicians are mainly active during the middle of the week, there are going to be more hard news stories reported on in the middle of the week.

Weekly news routines are illustrated in Figure 1. I chose four random weeks in the past six months to study. I used LexisNexis to search The Washington Post and The New York Times for articles that contained the terms: “Congress” or “President Bush”. For each day, I recorded the number of stories that met the search criterion. Each week followed a similar pattern where Monday and Saturday had the least amount of hard news stories. During the week, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday have the most hard news stories. Therefore, I expect that the days in the middle of the week (Tuesday thru Friday) are going to have more coverage of national security for the presidential candidates.

One implication of news routines is that stories that happen late in the day on Friday or Sunday are not going to get as much coverage. Politicians use this to their advantage if they are releasing unpopular news. One political tradition is called the “Friday Night Presidency” where President’s release unpopular news on Friday because fewer people are reading newspapers over the weekend (Milbank 2004).

Primaries/Caucuses (Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina)

Over the past several years, there has been a trend to front-load the Primary calendar. That is, some of the important Primaries with the most number of delegates are early on in the Primary season. This is due to the fact that most candidates drop out of the race once a front-runner is established. Therefore, many states want their Primary or Caucus to be held at the beginning of the nomination process while there are still several candidates running. If there are several candidates running, then that State’s Primary will have more of an influence on who gets the nomination than if the front-runner has already been established.

Primaries and Caucuses are huge media events because the media can focus on the horse race as well as the issues that are important to the public. “The Iowa Caucus and the New Hampshire Primary regularly receive one-fourth of all the media’s coverage of presidential nominations” (Norrander 2000). Since the Primaries receive so much news coverage, it is likely that the issues important to the public will also receive coverage. Therefore, I expect that the closer that the day is to the Primary, the more coverage a candidate’s will receive on national security.

The State of the Union address

The State of the Union address is a major news media event. The issues that the President brings up in his speech are going to be brought up in the news for the next several days, or even weeks. On January 20, 2004 President Bush gave the State of the Union address. National Security was the first topic that he spoke on. Throughout the speech, Bush specifically spoke about national security five times (Bush 2004). Since national security was such a huge issue in Bush’s speech, the media will probably give that issue attention also. As noted earlier, candidates should focus on issues that are already in the news to increase their exposure to voters through news coverage (Ansolabehere 1993). Therefore, I expect that candidate’s will receive more coverage on national security since the issue was already in the news.

Security Alerts

The security alerts this study focused on included the days that the terror alert went to high, the days where the terror alert was at high, and the days that the Department of Homeland Security issued a press release. These are all factors that affect the general public. One of the main reasons that an issue is important to the public is because of personal concerns (Dalager 1996). September 11, 2001 had an effect on every citizen. Every American was impacted by the realization that the United States was not invincible and was vulnerable to attack. So every American has a personal concern about security alerts. If there is a public concern about an issue, the media will cover it. Therefore, I expect that when there is a heightened security alert or DHS press release, the Presidential candidates will receive more coverage on national security.

By Carrie Rafer

© Davidson College, 2004, Department of Political Science, Davidson College, Davidson, NC 28035
Send comments, questions, and suggestions to Patrick Sellers
Created: 4/27/2004. Last updated: 5/2/2004.