What Influences the News Coverage that Candidates Receive on Issues?
A look at National Security Coverage in the 2004 Presidential Election

Introduction | Background | Expectations | Data | Methods | Results | Conclusions | Appendix

This study looked at eight different factors that might have an effect on the amount of coverage recieved:

1. Press releases issued by the candidate
2. Press conferences and speeches given by the candidates
3. The day in the campaign process
4. The number of candidates in the race
5. The day of the week
6. Primaries/Caucuses (Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina)
7. State of the Union address
8. Various security alerts (days the terror level was at high and the press releases issued by the Department of Homeland Security)

This study found that:

1. Press releases
• The press releases issued by the candidates did not have any significant effect on the amount of coverage that any candidate received on national security in the print media. This did not meet my expectations.
• Why?
  • Some campaing events have minimal effects on what the media covers. Even though press releases have minimal effects on the amount of coverage the candidate received in the media, candidates are not going to stop issuing press releases because there is a chance they may persuade reporters to give more coverage to the candidates on issues
2. Press conferences and speeches
   • The press conferences and speeches given by Wes Clark did have an effect on the amount of coverage that he received on national security in the print media. The more press releases and speeches that Clark gave on national security, the more coverage he received in the newspapers.
   • Why?
     • Candidate's background on issues gives them credibility to the media and voters. Clark has a strong background in national security as a retired army general. None of the other candidates have the same level of military background.
3. The day in the campaign process
• The day in the data set did have a significant effect on the amount of national security coverage that Lieberman, Dean, and Kerry received in the newspapers. The closer the day was to March 3, 2004, the more coverage that these three candidates received.
• Why?
  • The later on it is in the campaign process, the closer it is to the Democratic National Party Convention and the Presidential Election, and the issues become more important.
4. The number of candidates in the race
• The number of candidates in the race had an effect on the amount of national security coverage that Dean and Kerry received. The more candidates there are in the race, the less coverage that these candidates receive. So, when there are fewer candidates in the race, Dean and Kerry both receive more coverage on national security.
• Why?
  • Candidates who are doing well in the polls receive more coverage in the media and then do even better in the polls. Frontrunners stay in the campaign longer and therefore, recieve more coverage.
5. The day of the week
• The only day of the week that was significant for any of the candidates was Tuesday for Kerry. If the day were Tuesday, Kerry would receive more coverage than he would any other day of the week.
• Why?
  • Since politicians are mainly active during the middle of the week, there are going to be more hard news stories reported on in the middle of the week.
6. Primaries/Caucuses (Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina)
• All of the Primary and Caucus variables showed that the closer the day was to the particular Primary or Caucus, the more coverage most of the candidates received on national security.
• Why?
  • Primaries and Caucuses are huge media events because the media can focus on the horse race as well as the issues that are important to the public. Since the Primaries receive so much news coverage, it is likely that the issues important to the public will also receive coverage
7. State of the Union address
• The immediate days after the State of the Union address had an effect on the amount of coverage that most of the candidates received. The day of the State of the Union address had no significant effect on national security coverage.
• Why?
  • National Security was the first topic that Bush spoke on in the State of the Union. Throughout the speech, Bush specifically spoke about national security five times. Since national security was such a huge issue in Bush’s speech, the media gave that issue attention also
8. Various security alerts (days the terror level was at high and the press releases issued by the Department of Homeland Security)
   • The only security alert that had any effect on any of the candidates is the day when the security alert went to high for Edwards. If it was the day that the security alert went to high, the number of stories that Edwards received rose above his average number of stories
   • Why?
     • They day that the alert went to high was important to the public becasue it had not been at high since May the year before. It was significant for Edwards because he was the only candidate who's national security plan specifically addressed changing the color-code terror alert system
     • The total days the alert was at high may have become less important to the public because it was over the December holidays and people’s attention was focused on different things.
     • Press releases issued by the DHS are not widely circulated or publicized. Instead, they are posted on their webpage. Many Americans are probably not aware of any press releases issued so they are not as interested. If the public is not interested in these press releases, the media will not devote as much coverage to them

Conclusions

• Candidates have to make it easy for reporters to write their story. This study showed that candidates could do this through press conferences and speeches. Since these events are done primarily for the reporter’s benefit, the reporter will be more likely to attend and give the candidate’s issue coverage.
• Candidates need to be aware that certain days in the campaign process provide more coverage than other days. This study showed that the days that were closer to March 3, 2004, and therefore closer to the National Party Convention and the Presidential Election, received more coverage. Also, the days in the middle of the week provided more coverage for national security because most hard news stories are reported on in the middle of the week.
• When certain events happen that bring elections or particular issues to the public attention, candidates receive more coverage. This study showed that Primaries and Caucuses were some events that were important to election news coverage. The State of the Union address and the day that the terror alert level rose to high were also important events that brought national security to the public attention.
• The fewer the candidates there are in a race, the more coverage each candidate will receive. This is in part due to the momentum that the candidates receive. When the candidates are doing well in the polls they tend to receive more coverage. With the increased coverage that each candidate receives, the candidate will often fare even better in the polls because of the exposure in the media.
  

The complete study can be found in the following links:

Introduction | Background | Expectations | Data | Methods | Results | Conclusions | Appendix

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Bibliography

By Carrie Rafer

© Davidson College, 2004, Department of Political Science, Davidson College, Davidson, NC 28035
Send comments, questions, and suggestions to Patrick Sellers
Created: 4/27/2004. Last updated: 5/2/2004.